Anthony Chan Quotations

The plunge in inventory accumulation does suggest that firms are not confident enough to add merchandise to their shelves. But they will not be able to do this indefinitely because everyone knows that sporting empty shelves in a rising growth environment is not prudent.

We still see limited penetration into the rest of the economy. It's too early to say you're seeing pricing power to pass on the energy cost increases just because you saw just a jump in the core PPI number. The world has changed. In the old traditional world, whenever you had mature expansion, you had pricing power. Today with globalization, that's no longer the case.

While job losses may be ebbing, we have yet to see any signs of outsized hiring. This will not come ... until we transition from a slow-growing expansion to a normal economic recovery.

What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy. In 2000, we're going to see more of a gradualist policy.

What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy,

When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.

We're basically missing 5.1 million jobs at this stage of the expansion. You could even call it the case of the missing jobs, ... different paradigm.

Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.

With the rise in the unemployment rate, it is hard to conclude that the labor market is anywhere near out of the woods.

With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006.

We're still far from deflation, but not far from a deceleration in inflation, and that's why policy makers have to remain vigilant.

We're starting to see the savings rate pick up from near historic levels, which is very encouraging. Though we don't expect Fed tightening to work overnight, we are starting to see some of the early results of the significant tightening we've seen to date.

There doesn't seem to be any real urgency for firms to start hiring, precisely at a time we're seeing a reemergence of people becoming interested in looking for a job, ... Put the two together, and you have a formula for higher unemployment.

We've seen a sea change in the way the financial markets and economy watchers are looking at the world, ... For many months, people thought the economy was so strong and robust, they could ignore these head winds.

The CPI report was very tame. It sort of reflects the comments by Alan Greenspan that even though monetary policy is way too expansive right now, inflation is sufficiently a non-event, a non-problem, so the Fed obviously can wait at this point,

The CPI report continues to be encouraging. These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.

The CPI report continues to be encouraging, ... These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.

There are a lot of good factors out there.

This puts to rest any question of whether or not we're going to have an explosive recovery. We're clearly not.

This provides a big shot in the arm to the notion that geopolitical concerns were holding back the economy. Otherwise we wouldn't have seen such a big pop. This probably exaggerates how excited consumers will be after all is said and done, but it gets the direction right.

The only issue that is troubling is they feel some of the costs from energy are being passed on.

The primary catalyst in the market remains energy, it continues to rule the day. But then we saw that energy prices started to go up, and that took some of the luster off the gains.

When we see a change in payrolls that is dominated by a glitch in the seasonal factor, no change in average hourly earnings and only a small gain in the length in the average workweek, we know that the message is encouraging but not exhilarating,

Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.

Several times in the last year we've seen mortgage rates creeping up and housing hasn't responded. Now the Federal Reserve has put some credibility behind the increase in rates. I think it set a general tone for the housing market that it'll be a lot more muted.

Since the beginning of this year, the economy has been recovering gradually....In that environment, a gradually rising stock market would be justified. Instead we got a sharp decline. Can we justify this rally? Absolutely....But we can't justify a thousand-point increase every week.

Moving forward, the Fed will be focused on what they can do to get us out of recession.

One month doesn't make a story. But it's certainly very encouraging, especially with the market worried about inflation.

More globalization means there's more pressure to increase productivity, not to reduce it. No pricing power means there's more pressure to increase productivity, not less, ... There's so much pressure to push it higher, it will be difficult for cyclical factors to push it lower.

More rate cuts may not be forthcoming, but the Fed is also not likely to start raising rates as quickly as financial markets expect.

More people are entering the labor force, so there is more competition. More competition means there's less leverage for employees.

More and more firms are sticking their toes in the water. The recovery's begun, but it will be fragile.

Mortgage rates will put a little bit of a brake on housing activity, ... but it may come precisely as other sectors start to turn around.

Now, with the economic recovery appearing to be somewhat in place and the central bank not lowering rates, we see people trying to get in at the gates before rates start to rise.

Next week's producer price index or consumer price index could tip the Fed in favor of a June hike if they're on the upside.

New Fed chairmen like to come out of the gate looking hawkish as they try to formulate their credibility. Then, they go back to looking more dovish.

Nothing in this report tells things are running out of control.

People watching the Chinese trying to generate a soft landing think that, if it doesn't work in five minutes, it must not be working. We're not seeing immediate results, but I think it's incorrect to assume that, a year or a year and a-half from now, we're not going to see some of these effects. We will.

Policy makers make policy on long-term trends, ... This is temporary. Labor costs will eventually come down.

My suspicion is the value of the dollar has to continue to weaken. Until we see further reduction in the value of the dollar, we won't be turning the ship around.

My suspicion is that they are really leaving the door open, at least a crack, to an inter-meeting move.

My suspicion is that the dollar will remain relatively strong because, even if the ECB starts lowering rates, they've got a lot of catching up to do, ... The prognosis for the dollar remains cautiously optimistic.

Next year it may be tepid with a capital T.

On the price deflator the numbers are a little bit stronger, so I am not as excited about that price number for GDP.

One of the pillars of strength of the housing market is the fact of the tax-advantaged nature of the asset. To the extent that you chip away at that, you would see housing somewhat negatively impacted.

If we close the borders and have less undocumented workers, it would put some upward pressure on overall wages. It's no secret business will have to pay workers more money.

I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.

I believe that it is safe to say that this report understates the true strength of current labor market conditions.

But what we've seen is if you hit the economy over the head enough times with higher energy prices and short-term interest rate hikes, it reacts.

Based on these trends, it is not too difficult to conclude that the average consumer is probably a bit overextended from a credit standpoint,

If people lose their jobs, they're not going to go buy a car.

Given that we import more than 50 percent of our oil consumption from abroad, it is clear that as these prices rise, we are essentially transferring net wealth from U.S. consumers to oil producers that are mostly located overseas.

Given our forecast, we do not expect that this statistical release will have much impact on the policy debate when the Fed meets,

Futures are down this morning, feeling the pressure of Texas Instruments' weak forecast. Now it is clear that growth is certainly going to slow. The question is, by how much?

For those people hoping for a light at the end of the tunnel, this report reveals the tunnel is still under construction.

Given the signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector, that won't bring the economy to its knees, but it will ensure that this will be a moderate rather than robust recovery.

If we see strong average hourly earnings, that would be bad for stocks and bonds because it puts the inflation bogey-man on the front burner.

If the dollar continues to weaken at a controlled pace, it's a net positive for the U.S. economy.

He not only was articulate in his views, but justified his views without making financial markets balk. He was impressive, maybe not as impressive as Greenspan, but Greenspan had 18 years to practice.

We've fallen far short of prior economic expansions, ... We're about 5-1/2 million (jobs) short of where would be today if this were a typical expansion.

Today, information disperses so fast that we're reacting in nanoseconds to the news,

Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.

The pace of average hourly earnings continues to rise at just a tepid pace leading me to believe that this overall report is a very monetary policy-friendly report.

We may want to wait for another month or so to be sure that such gains were truly reflective of a upward trend and not just a possible distortion arising from the temporary 'hurricane-related' loss of many lower-paying service sector jobs,

We may very well be in the early stages of a profits recovery that will eventually pave the way for healthier capital spending growth,

He can't sound bullish and he can't sound bearish, ... He has walk a very fine line to justify maintaining this measured status quo.

Greenspan has to give reassurance that, if things deteriorate, the Fed is willing to act. But the underlying structure of the economy seems pretty good.

I would say that momentum (in the housing market) probably will not continue, since you don't see the same strength in permits that you do in construction,

keeps the Fed tightening engine humming along and does raise the possibility that a more aggressive posture could be adopted somewhere down the line if the inflation indicators continue to surprise to the upside.

It absolutely makes tomorrow's (Thursday's) Greenspan announcement as widely anticipated as the new 'Star Wars' movie.

It appears as though the level of job security is rising and that's a very encouraging thing to consumers, ... Consumers are spending more on general merchandise as well as on eating out. People don't go out to restaurants a lot if they're not feeling good about their economic situation.

I think it's fair to say it'll be the least important or most distorted jobs report in memory. Maybe both.

It could be the weather. Distribution costs increase with the cost of energy. Fertilizer goes up when energy goes up. There are various reasons for the surge.

It confirms the belief that the weakness in retail sales was the result of a bunker mentality in the wake of the terrible events of Sept. 11.

I think the markets probably overreacted when the Federal Reserve first moved toward a neutral operating directive. When Alan Greenspan spoke this time, I think the reality set in and that is, yes, the central bank has a neutral directive, but it's more like an ultra-right (hawkish) form of neutral directive. ... Any time they get an excuse to raise rates, they're going to take it.

I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine, ... The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.

I think the numbers minimize the probability of any action this year.

I think that if the Fed goes back to normal language about 'measured pace' (of rate hikes), it becomes a secondary story, ... It is only becoming a big story because of the uncertainty about what they were going to do. The equity markets will be looking for language here again. If it talks too harshly about inflationary pressures, it could be unfriendly for stocks.

I think the Fed certainly looks at this as building up as pricing power on the part of companies, ... But (the price index) is still within the tolerable range for the Fed. That's not to say the Fed can relax and go on vacation, but I would say they're a relatively benign.

I think the big jump in Japan gives a nice tail wind to the equity markets this morning.

I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.

I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.

I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.

I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.

I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.

I think this is the best of all possible worlds for the Fed. They'd like to see the economic expansion sustained without the side effect of higher inflationary pressure from wages.

I think this employment report shows that the laws of gravity do apply to monetary policy,

I think we're headed in the right direction.

I think they feel the inflation risks are inching higher, but I don't think they're inching so much higher to suggest we have a serious problem at hand,

I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.

I think these numbers have the potential to drive the Fed to do an inter-meeting cut. The economy is slowing down, and I think we'll see more of this before it's over.

I think the seeds are in place for a soft landing.

I think the risk is the downside, not the upside, ... I think the markets are fairly nervous about the prospects for growth. They're going to be dissecting the number. If we have slower than expected consumer spending and stronger than expected inventory growth, that's not going to bode well for the next quarter or so.

I think there were some significant fears that the CPI could come in above 0.2 percent. Given what we read in the Federal Reserve minutes, there was no room for error on core in the eyes of the market.

Last weekend, I filled up my tank and I spent $80, ... And that was just my lawn mower.

People are, in fact, a little bit nervous.... People have realized there is a little bit of risk in the equity market.

Outside of energy, the consumer is fine. That's why growth this year will be weaker than last year, and it will be weaker next year than this year.

Recent trends in this index strongly suggest that the largely anticipated path towards economic recovery has in all likelihood already begun,

Recent speculation about the demise of the housing boom has been greatly exaggerated.

Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.