In real terms, consumers today are paying considerably less for gasoline than they did during World War I.
We experienced similiar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.
This has a lot to do with the unrest in Nigeria, but also with the production loss after the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, the decline in Iraq since the 2003 war, and the decline in Venezuelan output since 2002.
If a war started, the oil price probably would go up, as you said, maybe $5, $6 a barrel until you saw other oil from the extra supplies that are available elsewhere coming into the world, into the market.
We experienced similar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.