We will probably see inflation holding around 2.4 percent and it is still benign. Things are generally improving in the euro zone and I don't think this story will be derailed by the PMI.
The market was reluctant to push the euro above $1.2150 and we've seen it slowly come down from there during European trading.
There are concerns that the revival in euro zone business confidence has been driven by the external sector, which could be undermined if the euro keeps on rising.
There is a reluctance to push the euro/dollar higher because of riots in France and pressure from euro zone finance ministers not to raise rates.
The more hawkish rhetoric we've had from the ECB and talk of the next move in interest rates being up is protecting the euro a little. The problem the market has is that it's tougher talk, but action is still some way away.
We are expecting a reasonably soft number, which could undo some small dollar gains we have seen against European currencies.