Let's take it one step at a time. Let's take the 30-year and see how that goes. We haven't had such long- duration assets in five years, so let's not go from one extreme to the other.
Mortgages were super, super rich in February. It made sense for them not to increase their portfolio using mortgages, but they did increase it, and it was mostly floating-rate type products, mortgage-related securities and those kind of asset-backed products.
Mortgages had been richening up for the bulk of the beginning of year.
Now, with the inflation numbers, there are some worrying about Fed credibility, worried maybe that they're falling behind the curve.
People were thinking that, if the oil refineries take a direct hit, energy prices would shoot up and it would have a bigger impact on the economy.
It brings it back to oil. As long as energy is making new highs, Treasuries will rally.
Traders normally try to use the supply story to push rates higher.
We're recommending investors stay short because we think there's more movement to the downside.
We had a relief rally on the back end yesterday (Thursday), and it's carrying through to today.
We had a relief rally on the back end yesterday, and it's carrying through to today. Plus, with the refunding out of the way, it's lifted a weight off the market.
With short-term rates that much more than long-term rates, it's not a bad idea to reverse your trade.
Dealers weren't that interested even though we had good indirect bidding.
As people read the economic numbers, they know the Fed is still there.
As rates float higher, it's better to keep your money close to home and wait for better opportunities down the road.
They lost the incentive to issue debt to buy mortgages during the end of January and the majority of February.
The Empire State report was strong ... and the selling pressures stayed there.