Holger Schmieding Quotations

There is a reasonable chance of the bank cutting rates.

Six quarters of mostly below-trend growth are taking their toll. The trend in rising unemployment and muted wage pressures suggests underlying inflation in the UK could ease further, keeping the door open for a possible rate cut later this year.

I dislike the VAT hike tremendously, I don't think it's necessary.

Growth looks more likely to stay below than to rise above 2.5 in the foreseeable future. A further decline in inflation, coupled with mediocre growth, will likely tilt the balance towards further rate cuts later this year.

French unemployment is stabilizing. We see further declines in the jobless rate.

Whatever the color of Germany's new government will ultimately be, the pace of structural reforms is likely to be slow.

We think around 4.5 percent is the adequate level for U.S. interest rates -- you could call it a neutral level -- and as there are modest inflation risks in the U.S., we expect the Fed to go slightly beyond that to 4.75.

We may still get a deal but it may not be thorough enough.

Merkel is chancellor, and she is reform-minded; we shouldn't forget that.

Whenever an economy is struggling, one should not raise taxes. New taxes will probably cut growth by 0.3 percent of GDP.

Whenever an economy is struggling, one should not raise taxes, ... New taxes will probably cut growth by 0.3 percent of GDP.

We've just had the worst 24 hours for the European reform outlook in a long, long time.

Faced with an extremely high euro and high wage costs, the companies stepped up their restructuring. When the euro declined last year, they suddenly found they could take on the world quite easily.

While the surge in key leading indicators strengthens the case for a further rate hike in the near future, the absence of second round effects from the oil price spike and the decline in headline inflation in late 2005 argue against any haste.

The orders data confirm that demand is very robust and we expect a significant acceleration in output growth shortly.

There could have been a heated discussion, with the doves preventing the acceleration in the pace of rate hikes the hawks may have wanted.

Britain has learned that there is no harm is selling your local champions to foreigners.

A May rate hike remains unlikely, in our view.

This is the worst thing we've had from the German economy for some time.

Still, the precise wording of the ECB statement on Thursday could provide some vital clues.

The bank hiked rates aggressively in late 2003 and early 2004 to cool down an economic boom fueled by an explosive rise in house prices, and clearly attained that goal.

It seems as if the labor market would stabilize even if it's still too early to speak of a change in trend. It's good news for consumption, but faced with high oil prices, a real improvement doesn't seem very likely for now.

They were slightly more dovish than I expected. There is a bit of a conflict between the bank's statement, and the numbers they gave.

Slow growth last year is still affecting the labor market.

The last 24 hours were the worst setback for reform hopes in Europe in a long time.

Germany is reaping the fruits of wage restraint and painful structural reforms. In addition, the change in government seems to have improved the business climate even if Merkel has so far done hardly anything in terms of serious economic reforms.

This has weakened his claim to be the one who could lecture other financial ministers on how to run their economies. He should publicly apologize to the IMF staffers whom he scolded last time for being too pessimistic on the U.K.

The hope that Germany would be a shining European example for accelerated reforms has been dashed,

The evidence on U.K. consumption remains contradictory. Some data such as weak consumer confidence and the reluctance to use credit cards point to further weakness ahead. However, the modest rebound in the real estate market and anecdotal evidence of satisfactory Christmas indicate a modest strengthening in spending.

The ECB probably has not found a consensus yet on rate policy beyond Dec. 1. For this reason, the ECB is unlikely to provide any clear Fed-style guidance on the future course of rates,

The figures are not proof yet of an economic slowdown as they are being distorted by cutbacks in work creation programs.