Seasonally, we're at the start of what should be the best six months of the year, but I'm cautious. There's still the potential for November to be OK, but I've tempered our outlook.
But that was just a minor correction on the heels of a huge bull market. The market's former success seemed to be more of an indicator that year,
There aren't many consistent big summer stock winners. In our sector watch, biotech is the one sector that tends to perform well in the summer months, starting in August, and July tends to be the best summer month overall for the S&P 500 stocks.
I think the hurricane really just exacerbates an existing situation for the market,
Most bull markets don't last as long as this one has.
There also tends to be a broader July 4th rally, and then after that, a lot of lower volume and a flat-to-lower bias through the rest of the season.
An event like this can be the proverbial straw that breaks the market's back.
Your long-term holdings you leave alone, but your shorter-term ones you may want to move.
You're dealing with a seasonal period that's less favorable for markets and you're also dealing with end of quarter portfolio issues.
It's not inconceivable to remove GM. But I'm not sure if there is another automobile company that better represents the industry and the auto industry is here to stay.
Everyone is focusing on what's happening and making plans for where the markets are going to go.
There used to be a New York Stock Exchange bias but the editors have become more progressive over the years. And in this age of a shrinking world, the Dow should represent a global economy,
There tends to be a lot of housecleaning from institutions in September,
Not really, as we've had a pretty typical first and second quarter. It looks like we'll see the traditional minor summer rally.
I'm not one of the editors of the Wall Street Journal , but I want to use the Dow as a market leading indicator, and for that you want a group of highly influential stocks, even when the news is bad. GM still represents a good part of the auto industry.
I'm not expecting this November to be any different than it normally is, but it's unlikely we'll see the pace of growth we saw over the last few years.
I'm not looking for quite the same steep declines this year, but early August has already been weak and we are definitely trending a lot lower for the period. You're not likely to see another sustained upturn until the end of the year.
I don't think these heavy issues will threaten the end of year rally, but I don't think 2005 and 2006 are going to be great.
The market dropped dramatically after January 1982, bottomed, and ended up rallying and starting the next bull market, ... We're not at all in the same part of the cycle right now.