We see a substantial risk of a financial crisis as an integral part of an Icelandic 2006-2007 recession. The funding squeeze of the banks will probably force them to reduce lending to domestic players, and force a sell off of external assets.
Icelandic banks have effectively been shut out of global credit markets, and a credit crisis is just around the corner.
We conclude that Iceland on almost all measures looks worse than Thailand did before its crisis in 1997 and only moderately more healthy than Turkey before its 2001-crisis.