Relatively moderate weather, ample supplies and an escalation in the dispute over Iran's nuclear program should make for another week of high volatility. Absent geopolitical uncertainty, prices should be moving lower.
Prices have retreated unusually fast and there is still two months left for the thermometer to drop.
At this time of year, it is hard to imagine prices running to far away, particularly with the huge amount stored.
We are starting to see a change in consumer behavior. Consumers are cutting back because of high prices, rising interest rates and signs that the housing bubble is ending. Prices have probably begun the long steady process of grinding lower.
Certainly the current supply fundamentals make it difficult to bid up prices much further.
It's high noon at the Security Council. Prices will rise because tensions are high. Iran has said that it would not specifically use oil as a weapon but now they are changing their tune.
It is apparently going to take more than growing inventories to turn prices seriously lower.