One of the reasons for the choppiness today is because of a fairly steady stream of comments coming out of the euro zone on the currency,
There is enough strength in this report to suggest at least one more hike from the Fed and possibly more.
It is going to be difficult to achieve any major policy changes now. The pace of reform is going to slow to a crawl. There is a very good chance this will weigh on the euro.
Part of the reason for the dollar's weakness today is positioning,
The overall case for Australian dollar weakness is still in place with a steady interest rate outlook in Australia and a diminishing interest rate spread against the U.S..
Yields were very important in 2005; we think they'll be important again over the early part of 2006. Over the first half of the year we think the dollar will do a little better on interest rates.
We saw some support at 120.70 yen, with the higher dollar/yen trend still in place and any kind of pullback should be relatively shallow.
At the start of the year, the investment community was very bullish on Asia. The currencies' performance is clearly surprising.
At the start of the year, the investment community was very bullish on Asia, ... The currencies' performance is clearly surprising.
Currency fundamentals are falling into place for a meaningful yen gain. The economy has been on a firm footing for some time. The expansion is being increasingly sustained by investment and consumer spending.
This might be a slight dollar negative. The key was the core which was bang on expectations at 0.2 percent. So there's not much inflation there.
The key thing is that, while this doesn't take away inflation concerns, it mitigates some of them and makes the 'measured' approach ... an even more likely response from the Federal Reserve.
The Fed will match or outpace the tightening of Europe or Japan, which should be dollar positive.
inflation concerns were not really new news and not prevalent in the market.
Interest-rate support for the Australian dollar will lessen quite substantially as the year progresses. We see a steady outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia and a higher Fed rate.
The dollar bulls have the upper hand. It increases the chances that they keep on going, and that's what is boosting the dollar.
The current phase of the dollar's rally is starting to look mature.