I still think it will be 0.75 in January, but the minutes pointed more toward 0.50 again.
So far, his views about the long term seem rather nebulous.
The inflation scenario is positive all around, and I don't see any signs of it worsening in the near term. I'm already betting on a small rate cut in September, probably by 0.25 (percentage points), and more after that.
Gustavo Franco had a good relationship with international banks and this change is very traumatic. Everything now is going to be related to Fernando Henrique (Cardoso)'s stance and that of Congress.
This is positive. The tax structure that exists today in Brazil, even for local investors, is an aberration.
