Antoine Halff Quotations

It's quite likely that the impact of Katrina on energy production will end up dwarfing that of Ivan.

We've climbed very quickly and strongly so prices are ready for a correction. The fundamentals haven't really changed. The crude market in the Atlantic basin is well supplied.

At the same time, what this attack demonstrates is not just how much the Saudi oil machine is a target for attacks, but also how prepared the Saudi oil company and military are, and how effective they are at thwarting attempts to disrupt oil production and exports. There are two sides to this.

There's a combination of strong economic statistics, an increase in geopolitical concerns regarding a variety of oil-producing countries, and bad refining news, and the market has been very spooked. It's a long laundry list of problems.

The government is trying to collect overdue taxes from oil companies to recover some lost taxes. And there is still some confusion about the government being in crisis.

There is tremendous political risk to supplies, including from OPEC producers, such as Iran or Venezuela, who have trouble meeting their production quotas, or even Nigeria. They can't address these concerns openly, but I am sure they are on everybody's mind.

Heightened geopolitical risk profoundly changes the meaning of fundamentals.

In the short term, the main market problem at the refining level is the shortage of product, not inputs. It's mostly a problem of product (gasoline), not crude oil.

It's late in the game. The only policy changes that would have an immediate effect would be demand restraints, such as increases in gasoline taxes, alternate driving days or enforcement of speed limits.

If it actually produced as much as it could, obviously, it would add tremendously to oil supplies, and it would push the price down.