The outlook for the bond market is still negative. The European recovery is quite strong and we've had an accumulation of hawkish comments from the ECB.
The risk is for the ECB to accelerate the pace of interest- rate hikes. There seems to be very little support for the European bond market.
We've seen there's demand for longer-dated securities. The auction will go quite well today.
We've seen an accumulation of strong numbers and sentiment at high levels in Europe. When we look at the numbers we're pretty confident the ECB will accelerate the pace of rate increases.
Treasuries remain under pressure and only weaker-than-expected data seem likely to reverse the current mood.
In the near term, there is a bit of support for the front end, due to these weaker numbers.
Five-year Treasuries should continue to attract buyers. We can expect the auction to go well, and the market to rally further.
February looks rather unlikely for the next rate hike, but March is still on the agenda. Yields will push higher over the coming months.
We're slightly positive on the bond market for now. A rate move is priced in for June but people have given up on the idea of getting anything earlier.
We've had an accumulation of hawkish comments from the ECB and the momentum behind the European economy is now quite strong. The picture remains quite negative for the bond markets.
