David Gilmoreis an American session jazz guitarist... (wikipedia)
What we do know is somewhat reassuring, even if there are significant gaps in his international economic policy resume.
Many of these countries are struggling to match rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,
Meanwhile, public works spending has caused a mountain of future liabilities to pile up, and without United States-like growth rates, paying them off is simply not in the cards.
One month is not a trend. Just the slowing U.S. economy is not enough to quell current account concerns in the long run.
More tightening is still needed. The Fed has to consider the election calendar. They can't delay until late summer or fall, when it might be politically more difficult.
But we suspect that by the end of March, the U.S. economic outlook will have improved and Japan's will have deteriorated.
If the ECB has to intervene regularly to support the euro, it is sending the wrong message to the public, who will be carrying euro notes and coins in 2002,
What makes some red in the face is that (Greenspan) can speak about Fed policy and the economy just days after leaving the Fed, when his insights are most relevant. Look at Eurodollar futures today if you have any doubt.
Unless we get some more serious signs of demand slowing, the Fed is expected to raise rates again at its next meeting,
Japan increasingly needs a weaker yen to counter falling foreign demand and increased competitive pressures.
Japanese individual investors continue to shun risk, and the notion of putting money into foreign assets is repugnant.
Otherwise a spend-prone fiscal policy teamed with a pro-growth monetary policy could be problematic for the U.S. economy and currency ahead.
Removing currency risk is key to getting Japanese investors to buy U.S. assets, which will help keep U.S. interest rates down.
Look for the imbalances theme to get loads of attention at the G-7 meeting. Doing nothing elevates the risk of a disorderly adjustment.
Markets become disorderly due to aggregate psychology. That's difficult for anyone to assess at any time, but you look for red flags, like significant overreactions to data,
Lindsey will assure the strong-dollar policy is intact, even if O'Neill from a business standpoint at Alcoa knows the benefits of a weak dollar.
Little is known about O'Neill's views on key policy issues such as the dollar and the proposed tax cut,
That would represent back-to-back quarters of growth, a noteworthy achievement.
We have to start thinking about the Fed moving from a neutral to a more restrictive policy. I wouldn't rule out a 6 percent Fed funds rate if the economy stays hot.
We believe the yen will weaken substantially into the first quarter of 2001,
We believe the ECB will follow the Fed rate cut relatively quickly with one of its own,
While we have said all along that the foundation for the U.S. expansion is dodgy, as long as it is what it is, we expect to see the dollar and Treasury yields - and fed funds - move up.
The question is, is this a turning point in the US trade deficit?
We are near a point this month that could see the early arrival of the weak dollar trade.
There is no immediate threat of intervention by the European Central Bank.
With little evidence that tightness in the U.S. labor market is slackening, and oil prices a wild card for inflation as winter approaches, the FOMC had few options but to remain vigilant about inflation,
We think that as long as labor market conditions remain tight and oil prices high, the Fed will retain an inflation bias which could last until early spring.
Europe has double-digit unemployment and no inflation problem, ... Any European Central Bank tightening will be swamped by much more from the Fed.
European companies are flush with cash and they want to own market share in the United States, ... They want to own the 'new economy.'
A rate hike will be no panacea for the euro,
You would have to be blind, deaf and dumb not to see that as pointing to a direction for the dollar.
There was no substance to this rumor. Nonetheless, it caused a short-covering bounce in the yen.
A Bush administration would want to post numbers that look as good as the Clinton-era numbers on the economy,
A Bush administration probably would want to sever associations with Clinton policies,
It looks like it will be a case of history repeating itself. The euro will head downhill after the rate rise.
It looks like it will be a case of history repeating itself, ... The euro will head downhill after the rate rise.
It's become virtually an unprofitable period for most institutions trading major currencies and government bonds. The real opportunity has come from commodities, global equities and emerging markets.
No more turning away from the weak and the weary. No more turning away from the coldness inside. Just a world that we all must share. It's not enough just to stand and stare. Is it only a dream that there'll be no more turning away.
It's rare to have a major current account dislocation in the United States, ... but it can happen.
The message from Fed officials is clear: You don't take a record expansion and shut it off with two months of data. There is no risk of a hard landing.
The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, and the European Central Bank could tighten more.
The failure of reformers to wrest control of the ruling party away from Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori is widely seen as a setback for revitalizing Japan,
In other words, Japan may now be in a technically defined recession.
If there is any significant slowing in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months, it will be good-bye surpluses and hello big fiscal stimuli and deficits, and welcome higher U.S. rates,
Change is difficult. But I will make you one promise. When we are finished here, I believe everyone involved will be pleased to have gone through the struggle -- because life will be better.
If he was here, I would hug that man for what he's done for me.
The chart of oil priced in euros is not a pretty picture,
And slowdowns in the U.S. economy and the Asian regional economies, along with high oil prices, raise questions about fourth-quarter growth in Japan,
The dollar is getting batted back and forth from U.S. data indicating that Fed will raise rates to data that indicates the opposite. I don't think there's enough data on the table for anyone to predict what the Fed will do.
The Medley report was instrumental in pushing up the dollar against the yen.
The market is pretty bullish on the dollar. With the U.S. economy enjoying low inflation and strong growth, and with the stock market picking up again, it makes it a tough go for the euro.
The market is pretty bullish on the dollar,
The market is not focused on imbalances, but rather interest rates and in the US right now they are high and getting higher across the yield curve.
