The factory orders report shows that the first two months of the fourth quarter were not especially a great time for manufacturers.
Once a person is appointed, they are basically independent. If you're president, you want someone who would temper their criticism of you.
The market liked what it didn't see. The market got itself worked up about the Fed possibly being more aggressive about inflation and when that didn't appear in the minutes, investors then focused on a relatively benign view of inflation.
It puts the Fed in a position they probably don't want to be in, but they'll have to keep raising rates.
I don't think this is going to draw much in the way of the Fed's attention. It was delayed for some time, and nobody from the Fed was complaining. They don't focus on it.
Looking ahead, we can't see what is going to cause a downturn of enough significance to take inflationary pressure out of the economy and cause the Fed to stop raising rates.
I think what this does is ratify the Fed's current stance --- moving at a measured pace seems to be the prudent course.
We're expecting him to mention consumer confidence numbers and consumer spending numbers and to come out and say we need to ensure that consumer confidence is bolstered. We're expecting him to come out and basically let the markets know to expect a cut in March.
Nobody's going to default in the U.S. Treasury market. The biggest concern I have is that not everybody understands that, and some people understand it better than others.
People are breathing a sigh of relief and bought a few bonds and stocks. Everyone plays, everyone wins.
