Ernie Goss Quotations

Despite difficulties for Missouri's vehicle manufacturing sector, durable goods manufacturers overall continue to report expanding economic conditions. I expect the state's telecommunications industry to experience much improved growth for 2006.

The bankers in our survey reported economic weakness across the board for February with readings of 28.8 for retail sales, 44.0 for new hiring and 38.5 for home sales.

The Mountain States region experienced growth significantly higher than the rest of the nation. The region added 53,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.9 percent, in the first half of 2005 but added only 41,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent, in the second half of the year.

Utah began 2006 on a strong note, but on a pace somewhat below that of 2005.

The 15 Fed rate hikes and higher energy prices, even with the warmer than expected winter weather, are having negative impacts on confidence among regional supply managers and business leaders.

For example, greater reliance on ethanol by the U.S. will make many areas in the region clear economic winners.

For 2006, Minnesota's big economic stories will be problems related to the continuing cutbacks in the U.S. auto industry, a turnaround for the telecommunications industry, and finally a weakening of Minnesota's construction industry. Nonetheless, our survey points to still solid growth for the first half of 2006.

Of course the loss of the 2,400 GM jobs will hurt the Oklahoma and Oklahoma City economies. However, given the provisions of job banks, the full force of the negative impacts will not be felt until 2008. In the interim, our survey points to solid growth with positive job gains in the months ahead for Oklahoma's economy.

I expect positive, but weaker hiring in the region in the months ahead.

I expect higher commodity prices and escalating short-term interest rates to push regional growth down significantly in the second half of 2006.