We remain cautiously optimistic that Philippine exports will eventually catch some wind and ride the ongoing global electronics demand upturn at least within the first half of the year.
There is significant saving on interest payments because of lower interest rates.
They want to help pre-empt a build-up in inflationary pressures, which is likely to follow after the fuel price increase. They are now being more proactive rather than reacting to the situation.
Continuous strength in the electronics sector will drive growth in NODX in December.
We are maintaining our full-year 2005 GDP estimate at 4.8 percent, which implies an improvement in the fourth quarter to 5.1 percent.
It's a respectable number for the wrong reasons. It's still oil that's driving imports whilst electronics, which are the No.1 export, are still down. We will surely see some slowdown in exports.
High oil prices are kind of benefiting Singapore in a way. We're seeing some increase in the order books of all these companies, the oil rig manufacturers.
Growth should accelerate next quarter and we expect the official forecast for the year to be raised. We are seeing signs of electronics improving.
There's a trend now for central banks in the region to raise rates. Thailand has been raising rates since last year and it has served them well.
The hike in pump prices, and electricity and gas tariffs that have also been raised, fed through to overall consumer prices. Given that the MAS expects a higher pass-through from oil, and for inflation to be higher even in 2006, the current policy stance will remain appropriate.
