Given the election situation, I don't see a sharp rise in fuel prices, but further interest rate hikes won't be a negative political factor.
Given the declining inflationary scenario, inflation should further drop in March due to seasonal factors and supply improvements that would help the food index to take a breather.
If peace doesn't prevail, there will be some fall on the aid front and that will hit the currency. We could see inflation rising and interest rates coming under pressure.
With inflation slowing, the focus now is to keep rates steady for growth.
An increase in domestic fuel prices will be inflationary and controls will have to come through rates. But the central bank will likely hold back this month to let the effects of its previous rate hikes materialize.
What is important from an investment angle is to look at the continuation of the peace process and further strengthening of it.
This could easily affect the result. The relief measures, especially for agriculture, can be used as an election platform in the remaining campaign rallies.
This is a good signal by the central bank to control credit, as it's further fueling inflation.
