The market is muddling around in the ranges it's been trading in for the last seven days. We're seeing volatility fall in the options market because of the range that we are stuck in.
The minutes have fueled the fire for the dollar bears. The Fed is probably close to ending its tightening cycle.
The reigning theme has been the interest rate differentials that have propelled the dollar higher and the market thinks that theme won't be unwound any time soon. People are continuing to buy dollars on that theme.
These numbers tell you that the economy is humming right along through the holiday season. There will be no reason for the Fed to stop hiking interest rates, which is very supportive of the U.S. economy and the dollar.
The longer-term trend for the dollar is higher for the balance of the year. The economy is doing fine.
The more people believe the Fed is taking interest rates to 5 percent the more they are buying dollars. People are trading interest rates.
Everybody's waiting for tomorrow to see if the economy really is on a aggressive roll. It would imply moving more toward 5.25 percent, which should keep the dollar relatively well bid.
There's some selling of the dollar on what appears to be a little weaker demand in the U.S. economy.
Any bets on dollar weakness will be a bet that higher energy prices will divert consumer spending, which has been the motor for the economy.
It was a somewhat weak rally in the euro anyway and it wasn't a move that was substantiated by the trade figures.
