I think there is going to be a fairly precarious supply-demand balance. If we have a couple of refinery snags, there will be some product dislocations.
Crude supply is no longer an issue. We have plenty of it. However, that crude number is being countered to some extent by the large decline in gasoline stocks.
Crude stocks should show a sizable increase as an expected further recovery in imports toward 10 million barrels a day more than negates the impact of additional refinery restarts.
The problem with sufficient refinery capacity to produce gasoline still presents an issue, at least within the US.
We're not seeing enough pickup in production or imports. This should be enough to support the whole energy complex through the balance of the week.
By and large you had this myriad of refinery news which supported the products and pushed crude prices up.
This report is completely overshadowed by the storm. We did see a draw in gasoline stocks, and even though it's slight it isn't what this market needed,
It's still somewhat of a coin toss. The odds lean against the possibility of this coming up the Houston Ship Channel.
Given the magnitude of the damage and flooding considerations, they are coming back pretty fast...especially within the framework of a lot of employees that have been misplaced.
After Katrina, we're better equipped to analyze the potential for Rita and I don't think the upside response will be as exaggerated.