The (second-quarter) numbers are nothing to shout about, and they could have been worse, ... We can expect the third quarter to be subdued and possibly a better fourth quarter.
There is a risk going forward that if sterling remains exceptionally strong particularly against the euro, that will knock the recovery in the U.K.,
For the ECB to be hiking rates, they needed to see some clear signs of growth. And they are getting it now in abundance.
In terms of fiscal policy very little is expected from the budget.
This will encourage the ECB to lower rates sooner rather than later, ... Their own growth target (for the euro zone) is 2 1/4 to 2 1/2 percent. They won't achieve that now.
The obvious focus for the market will be the core PPI, and given what we've seen for consumer prices, we should see a relatively modest increase there,
The signals were very explicit, given the weakness of the euro and pressure on inflation starting to come through,
Whatever happens the euro will fall. Even an aggressive move - half a percentage point - wouldn't help, and then they'll have used all their ammunition up.
Whatever happens the euro will fall, ... Even an aggressive move - half a percentage point - wouldn't help, and then they'll have used all their ammunition up.
This is going to be more of a newspaper headline budget rather than one for any macro economic changes,