Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Markit, and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates (McGraw Hill). (wikipedia)
We seem to be able to absorb serial shocks.
Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.
It's starting to happen in high-tech professions which we felt were 'ours,' ... That's what's shocking people.
While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.
It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
Because the economy is strong and job growth is strong, the consumer has not felt much pain, but that is likely to change in the next few months, ... I think we are headed for a period of economic weakness mostly related to the oil situation.
The Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures - gradually rising wage inflation, tighter capacity constraints and higher oil prices.
Bush has probably made the best choice among the top contenders for the post and one that is likely to reassure financial markets.
Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.