Paul Ashworth Quotations

The wider impact of Hurricane Katrina on the national economy is now becoming evident and none of it is pretty.

As far as the Fed is concerned, payrolls growth is probably just about right -- not too hot and not too cold.

While the drop in gasoline prices makes these sales figures look bad, it is of course good news for spending in real terms, which is what really counts.

The jump in import prices will fan the new-found fears of inflation in the markets and at the Fed.

He has been careful to address all possible concerns about his leadership in Congress, in financial markets and among his Fed colleagues.

Today's inflation figures will reinforce the belief that the Fed only has one or two more interest-rate hikes up its sleeve before it rests. The lack of any significant upward pressure on inflation should help persuade the Fed to raise rates no higher than 5 percent.

This will no doubt give protectionists in Congress some ammunition as the mid term elections approach.

I do not expect core inflation to rise much above these levels. But were it to do so, this would seal the case for more rate rises.

It is not clear exactly why confidence is falling but it may have been dented by concerns over the cooling housing market. The contrast between the buoyancy of current economic conditions and caution over the future is now the sharpest since 9/11.

The bottom line is that a current account deficit of this unparalleled magnitude is unsustainable and there is no hope of it being resolved painlessly through higher exports alone. Instead it will require a big dollar depreciation alongside much weaker domestic demand for imports.