Peter Kretzmer Quotations

On balance, recent inflation reports have shown the Fed evidence of pipeline commodity price pressures but with little impact on consumer inflation trends,

The economy will grow faster in the first quarter. Consumer spending is recovering.

There hasn't been a lot of correlation between commodity prices and inflation since 1990.

That's consistent with the idea that labor market conditions are not really improving yet. They're not getting worse, either, but they've only stabilized.

The huge U.S. trade deficit may finally be stabilizing.

If the Fed pauses late in the year, as we now assume in December, its response will be related to economic fundamentals, with GDP slowing late in the year rather than a direct 'emergency' response to events on the Gulf Coast.

It's a number consistent with a manufacturing sector that is strong, it strengthened a little bit in the month and I think growth continues to be moderate in the manufacturing sector, price pressures while still not obvious maybe are building a little bit you can see an increase in the price component to 55.1 that's indicative of some price pressure.

With interest rates rising and demand for new home ownership slowing, it is likely that stronger demand for rental properties will push rental rates up at a higher pace.

Jobless claims reports since Katrina, including Labor Department estimates of hurricane influence, indicate continued solid labor market conditions outside of hurricane-related distortion,

Spending ended the quarter on a strong note, and that largely reflects the return of growth in auto sales. It's confirmation that spending was getting back on track.