Recent increases in mortgage rates can be expected to depress home sales further over the next few months.
The Fed may hold off at this meeting but they will probably raise rates soon, perhaps before the end of the year,
We're looking for a little slower growth and a little higher inflation, but there will be a slower slowdown in growth than a pick-up in inflation.
The housing market frenzy, which enticed potential home buyers to rush their purchases before prices moved still higher, has now apparently broken.
That's based partly on the view that core inflation goes up from here and partly on the view that job growth is strong.
I don't think we're going out on a limb in suggesting that the Fed will leave rates unchanged this time around. We expect the Fed may bide the time it has and wait to see how the economy looks before moving again, particularly with no solid evidence of rising inflation.
This (New York) survey suggests that the manufacturing slowdown is more gradual than had been expected. The more reliable Philadelphia Fed survey out Thursday will provide a better read.
Historically, construction and starts have been highly sensitive to weather conditions during the winter months.
We've seen a lot of significant evidence lately that the global economy is picking up, particularly in export orders. There's a lot of evidence coming in that things overseas look good.
