Rory Robertson Quotations

The longer the Fed drags this out without cutting rates, the more they're admitting they don't have much firepower at all. They're sitting on their hands, hoping for the best.

The markets were a little disappointed that the Fed didn't give any explicit hint that a pause is around the corner.

The markets are coming to understand that policymakers will be inclined to keep rates very low for an extended period -- the FOMC (Fed rate-setting committee) can still only dream that the economy will be strong enough in 2002 to justify a rate hike.

Rising oil prices are quite unhelpful, and falling prices are quite helpful in terms of giving stimulus to the economy. Lower prices feed through pretty well to everyone immediately.

The Fed is trying to do what it can, but the history of the past 200 years is that big booms tend to end badly -- big equity market booms in particular. The Fed so far has done a magnificent job of holding the show together, but we don't know what effects of the bubble are still in the pipeline.

The Fed ultimately will be forced to cut rates further because we have had this ongoing issue of sub-par growth, disappointment on the jobs front and core inflation edging lower. People are talking about a terrific snap-back in the economy after the war, but I'm skeptical we're likely to see it.

I think the back-up in rates should rate a mention -- it's the most significant thing that's happened to the economy in the past seven weeks.

The thing driving service prices is wage growth, and after two years of sub-par economic growth, we've got wages decelerating. If the Fed doesn't get the economy growing at an above-trend pace in the next couple of years, deflation will arise.

The thing that helped the economy so much was a drop in interest rates, which meant lower mortgage rates, which meant consumers have been able to tap the wealth in their homes by refinancing and taking equity out of their homes. With rates having backed up so sharply, refinancing is not such a bargain any more.

I think it's going to be 50 basis points because the Fed is worried about the economy, and I think the accompanying statement will reflect that.