Iran is going to be the focus for still quite a long period.
In the short term, any kind of disruption from two very large producers like Iran and Nigeria isn't something that can be offset by other production.
The market seems to be determined to pass 70 dollars.
The markets are going to discount Nigerian production in the price of oil. It could be that it shuts down all of Shell's onshore operations in Nigeria.
The particular type of oil being lost, light sweet, is much in demand. So we're actually seeing a real impact from the loss of that crude. Having said that, there is actually plenty of crude around. But a lot of it is heavy and sour.
There might be a little more flexibility in the U.S. refining system than people expected. Plants have been able to churn out more product than initially thought.
It is a strange market at the moment and frankly I am surprised that the rise we've seen earlier in the week from the Ukraine-Russia dispute is still there. People still feel a bit shaky about what happened in Russia and Ukraine, and with Sharon ill and some uncertainty in Israel.
Supplies are ample and stockpiles are rising. We're still lacking spare production capacity but the market is fairly happy that there's a good buffer in place in the form of inventories.
Prices are strong at the moment primarily because of the tensions over Iran and concerns over what might come out from the IAEA inspection.
There is so little spare capacity and many risks to supply.
