Overall, these data are in line with the view that the European economy is gathering steam.
Our view that the domestic economy will improve this year is very much on track. We saw already that investment growth is starting to kick in and that will support consumption eventually.
If we have (economic) activity going up quickly, inflation remaining close to two percent and a high wage deal in Germany, then the guys at the ECB will start to get nervous.
From a growth point of view, this means less domestic demand, and a poor growth performance.
In France, and in Europe generally, consumption is very reactive to prices. So if inflation remains close to two percent, that is a potential problem.
There have been a lot of warnings about German GDP which is also likely to be low, so I think a number close to 0.3 percent is more likely than 0.4.
The big rise in future living standards is clearly linked to tax cuts.
Here, we also have a very volatile indicator. The trend remains downward. I don't think that has changed.
I'm not talking about a massive acceleration, but little by little you can have more support from the domestic side of the economy in Europe.
I think there is a competitive problem in France and the view we've taken is that Germany could surprise on the upside ... while I think France could surprise on the downside.
