Weaker spending on seasonal goods has been building up for four months now. The two factors hurting consumers particularly at the low- and middle-income levels are that wages have not grown and gasoline prices could go even higher.
I expect this number to rise toward the end of the year. At the same time jobs and wages won't rise fast enough to offer relief to already overstretched consumers. This could hurt retail spending in the second-half.
The risk for Wal-Mart is that as wages improve, consumers will go to alternative retailers such as Home Depot, Gap, Bed, Bath & Beyond or a Best Buy for better quality and more variety of products,