We have a pretty good idea (that growth will slow) for the first half and maybe through the summer. Beyond that, we ought to be honest and admit that it gets fuzzy.
We're not in trouble. But at the same time it's quite clear that there is no sign of a sustained pickup in growth in sight. Our conclusion is don't worry, don't be happy.
Despite the general eagerness to declare that the soft patch is behind, the return to robust growth is nowhere in sight.
Wage growth is firm but it's not that elevated.
Growth is more likely to firm modestly from here and it's quite unlikely to ease much further.