Outside of energy, the consumer is fine. That's why growth this year will be weaker than last year, and it will be weaker next year than this year.
The momentum going into 2006 is clearly healthy. We will be able to withstand weaker growth for the rest of the quarter and almost not miss a heart beat.
Weaker consumer confidence threatens to reverse the course of the recovery. That's why policy makers will be so cautious. They don't really have to worry about the economy's fundamentals, but they do have to worry about confidence.