We continue to question how close the situation now is to either complete company withdrawal from the area or a strike by workers due to the obvious lack of security.
We continue to expect two more rate hikes, but the dovish tone of the minutes suggest that upside risk to this forecast is limited.
Range-bound trade looks likely to continue for some time, though we see potential for prices to break on the upside after this consolidation phase.
Prices should continue to consolidate in the wide range of $535-$555 in the near term, though the underlying sentiment remains bullish and downside appears limited at present.
Speculative activity will continue to dominate price movements, with fund interest based on justifications such as economic slowdown, inflationary concerns and hopes of Asian central bank buying and soaring physical demand.
The continued strong performance of commodity investments, allied to the desire of many institutional investors to diversify their equity and fixed income exposures, suggests that commodity investments are likely to continue growing strongly in 2006.