I think incentives have been a concern for some time now as they impact margins. With GM pushing hard on incentives to boost their volume, it's pulling everyone kicking and screaming into the game whether they like it or not.
The general consensus (on 2004 sales) is 17 million. If manufacturers come on strong with incentives, it'll easily be 17 million. If they pull back -- and there's been a lot of discussion of them pulling back -- it could be 16.5.