It's a question of whether Iran or the U.S. blinks first.
While Iran said last week that it would separate nuclear and oil as issues, it was only last year that it warned that oil could be used as a weapon to get its own way on the nuclear issues.
The Iranians shouldn't be underestimated. If they were to cut supply in protest, there's really not enough capacity to absorb the loss of their exports.
The Iranians are taking this right down to the wire.
Oil production is pretty close to capacity at the moment. The market is going to be very jittery until the Iranian issue is resolved.
I'd be surprised if oil ticks much lower, stocks are good but you only have to have Iran start to threaten the loss of barrels. I expect the Iranians to take this to the wire.
I'd be surprised if oil ticks much lower. Stocks are good, but you only have to have Iran start to threaten the loss of barrels. I expect the Iranians to take this to the wire.
Iran will take the nuclear situation to the wire, making the market nervous. It will wax and wane diplomatically and they'll extract a price before agreeing to any deal with the west.