Other than the weather, and hurricanes, and refineries going down, and Saudi Arabia and Iran, and strong economic statistics, there really is no reason why crude oil prices should be so high. It must be speculation, don't you think?
Today, everyone has moved off those two stories a bit. We're expecting a build in crude, so it's hard to simultaneously say crude is desperately short and U.S. stocks continue to build.
The IEA have only predicted losses in refined crude production for September, and the reality is that 4 major US refineries with a total output of 900,000 barrels are still down, and they are expected to be for the next 2-3 months.
The crude market and the global economy have been quite willing to pay $60 a barrel without harm. The only thing that has happened is that the economic boom that gave us the fastest economic growth in 25 years has slowed a little bit to bring demand back in line.
Crude is still flooding in despite supply disruptions.
Crude is not the problem. The heart of the problem is how much refining capacity we have lost.