We still believe UK interest rates will eventually be trimmed by a further 25 basis points, although not until August at the earliest.
We believe that interest rates will eventually come down by a further 25 basis points to 4.25%.
This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points.
This significantly reduces the prospects of any interest cut until at least August. Indeed, it increases the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates could be up.
The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.