Ian Shepherdson Decline Quotations

Given the huge decline in consumer confidence, this (gain in spending) does not seem unreasonably weak, especially with consumers' real after-tax income growth slowing too.

Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.

As the newspapers remind us every day, job layoffs are still high, but the point is that they now appear to be slowing, ... The worst is over, and the decline in output and employment will soon slow.

The bottom line is that a one-month decline in this measure does not reverse the clear, firm upward trend.

This is a significant decline in confidence, ... Presumably the combination of higher interest rates and stagnant stock prices lies behind the moves, but the key point is that the steady rise in recent months has abruptly begun to reverse.

It it too soon to be sure, but we think there is a good chance that the industrial sector has now fully adjusted to the summer's steep decline in confidence.