Ian Shepherdson Expect Quotations

There are currently more than a million displaced people, and I don't expect many of them to be back at work by the time of the September payroll survey.

No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved: A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving -- but we still expect a soft payroll report Friday.

If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.

Over the next few months we expect starts to strengthen as reconstruction begins on the Gulf Coast - the rise in permits may be an early sign - but elsewhere starts still need to lag sales. Demand is still huge but there are too many new homes for sale.

Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.

Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.

We expect a couple of very rough months for consumers spending.

We expect a big drop in September: Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims.

We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.

The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,

There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.

We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.

We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.

We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.

The surge in activity is a lagged response to the strength of new home sales, and with mortgage demand now well off its highs -- though still strong -- it probably can't last, ... But there is no reason to expect an immediate plunge, not least because permits rose again in February, for the fourth straight month.

After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.

After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02, ... This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.

The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.

Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue.

Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006.

By early next year we expect starts to have begun to decline, though activity can probably remain close to current levels for another couple of months,

If claims remain at their current level, we could expect the unemployment rate to be down to 4 percent or so by mid-summer.