Ian Shepherdson Report Quotations

There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near.

No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved: A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving -- but we still expect a soft payroll report Friday.

Ignore the ISM at your peril, ... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer.

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead -- but it does mean no rate hike on the 22nd.

This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.

This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,

This report is much stronger than it first appears.

This report indicates manufacturing is continuing to rebound from the Asian crisis, which is exactly what the Fed expects.

This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,

This report augurs very well for the holidays.

The price index was up, ... This reflects the rise in oil prices and not much else, but that won't stop doom-mongers worrying about it. In short, the report shows manufacturing is still on track.

We think not, but this report muddies the waters for the FOMC.

After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief.

The bottom line here is that the month-to-month volatility in the durable orders data is such that the true information content in a single report is very small -- there's just too much noise.

This is a surprise but it cannot last. We think the other elements of the report give a better indication of the strength of the market, with supply of single-family homes up to 5.3 months, compared to just 4.0 a year ago. Price gains have slowed to 7.8 percent year-on-year, down from 10.4 percent in Feb and a 19-month low. Much lower sales will follow.

The report suggests that industrial orders are trending higher as manufacturing recovers from the Asia crisis, ... There are no real signs of a slowdown.

It is still too early to call the end of the manufacturing slump because the stability of July output might be little more than a seasonal effect, ... this report probably means the worst is over.

In any event, a single durable good report will have little effect on the Fed.

Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.

This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.