Ian Shepherdson Underlying Quotations

It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend,

We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,

We believed the underlying level of claims peaked in the spring. This suggests that they may now genuinely have begun to decline.

Believe it or not, this is a seriously encouraging report. There is a very good chance the underlying deficit has now peaked.

There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.

Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.

Behind the enormous distortions caused by the hurricanes, the underlying state of the labor market has continued to improve.

The underlying trends are still adverse, however, and the deficit will rebound next month.

The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow.