Jason Schenker Iranian Quotations

The crack spread of gasoline has collapsed, and only an escalation of Iranian tensions could buttress crude at this level.

If the rise in imports and utilization manifest this week continues next week, it could apply some downward pressure. Of course, any decline in petroleum prices would be predicated on the notion that the Iranian geopolitical situation remains relatively quiet.

If this leads to the shut-off of Iranian oil, I think it would probably mean we've got bigger problems than the price of oil. But if we end up with a 1970s-style oil embargo, we could see prices go markedly higher into uncharted territory.

Given OPEC's decision to keep quotas unchanged, Iranian guarantees of oil supply and U.S. statements excluding the possibility of oil sanctions, crude is poised to fall next week.

If we were able to reach a 'comfortable unease' on the Iranian situation, I think we'd see prices drop into the low $50s.

You could still see some downward price moves if the Iranian situation just fades from view. If it fades from the headlines you could see oil prices move down several dollars.

The Iranian situation appears to be getting worse.