Ken Goldstein Reflect Quotations

In all of the data, the road is up, but we're going to hit a couple of speed bumps along the way. I'm not sure the Michigan index is reflecting anything more serious than one of those speed bumps.

There are a lot of factors here, but more than anything else, we haven't had a full jobs recovery, and the consumer is waiting for that. These numbers reflect they're kind of running out of patience.

The flat pace in the leading indicators points to continued moderation in U.S. economic activity. This is reflected in indicators for manufacturing, housing, consumer, labor, and financial markets. The economy is starting to reflect the impact of growth restraints.

Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.

The labor market indicators reflect a loss of economic momentum, even eliminating the impact of the storms and flooding.

Both investment and hiring intentions reflect a level of caution over both pricing and profit strategies.