We're getting some very good results today despite the very difficult 6.7 percent February same-store sales comparisons from last year.
The numbers look pretty good so far. We are seeing more surprises to the upside and this is a nice reversal of the trend that we had expected last month. Even among those retailers who missed our forecast, not many of them blamed gas prices for it.
If numbers are better than expected and the news is good for second quarter outlooks, then we could rally on that. But I think the results are pretty much baked into the cake here.
If the price of oil remains between $45 to $50 a barrel, that's not a good sign especially if we experience a very cold winter. Heating oil prices will go up and that's likely to dampen consumer spending during the winter months.
The first two quarters of last year were OK but not stellar. If we still have double digit increases in earnings during the third quarter, that would be good news.