Kurt Barnard Year Quotations

Until the unemployment picture improves, consumers will be very cautious about their spending habits. We think the second half of the year could also be difficult for the retail industry unless the job demand improves.

There are two conflicting forces at work on the consumer. One is people have jobs, they have money, the unemployment rate is still at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent, a lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable. A lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable, people have money and jobs, but they don't have as high a discretionary spending level as they did a year ago.

No one should come to the conclusion, as some people have already done, that this is going to be a disastrous holiday sales season for retailers. For most, it's going to be a decent sales season, but it will fall for most below the levels achieved a year ago.

What we are suffering from is the slide from the exuberant high we had a year ago at a level that was completely unsustainable, ... I will also tell you retailers are going to be up against far more favorable numbers, easier numbers.

Kmart's earnings were lower than a year ago, and the reason why they were lower is because there is a lot of money being invested in infrastructure. But it's going to pay huge dividends in the future, ... Kmart is finally very excellently positioned to turn around and create a very strong place in the sun.

Remember, there are still over 2 million unemployed workers and over 5 million are on part-time jobs. Christmas will be moderately better simply because last year was so bad. But unless this jobs picture improves, it's hard to say that the retail industry has finally turned the corner.

Consumers still aren't in a spending mood, ... This year is going to be modestly better. The emphasis is on the word 'modest.'

Early indications show that store traffic and the promotional activity is at lower levels than last year at this time. I wouldn't be surprised if many retailers try to get away with selling merchandise at full price.

February sales were very strong, stronger than anticipated in many instances. I will tell you that if you were a retailer in February and did not do very well, you stood out like a sore thumb. We're telling our clients that the first half of this year will continue to be marked by continued strong spending at the retail cash register.

The thing that drives retail sales most and best is job availability and the ease of obtaining new jobs. Both of these factors are absent at the present time. It may not be until the end of the year that we see job growth.

Are consumers buying more? I don't know. I think what Wal-Mart said about people spending less of the rebate money this year in stores is significant. It shows people prefer to save any extra money than spend it.

This is actually a little worse than I expected, and particularly bad when viewed within the context of a year ago, which was already very weak.

Consumers in October continued on a buying spree, propelled by a very robust economy, ... Many came through with better figures than last year, even though last year the numbers were also very good.

Everybody is worried about a soft landing for the economy and a contraction of consumer spending. And come Christmas it will be far less exciting than a year ago. The high cost at the gas pump is beginning to take its toll and for a lot of families spending an extra $20-to-$25 a month on gasoline means spending that much less on stores.

These numbers come on the back of heavy discounting. The back-to-school period also fueled results. Beyond that, the situation last year in July wasn't good. So retailers were up against much easier comparisons.