I firmly believe consumer spending will stay in positive territory, but I think we will see further signs of consumer fatigue as the year progresses.
I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down, ... But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit.
We had a massive jump in the Conference Board measure of consumer sentiment last month, and everybody will be looking for confirmation of that improvement in the Michigan survey.
Yet again, the U.S. consumer has phenomenal resilience and is not being swayed by the employment numbers coming out.
This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report. There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought.
This was a pretty positive number, with solid increases in output of business equipment and consumer goods.
I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it's hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.
A lot of people don't understand that the ISM number is not actually an output number. It's the equivalent of consumer confidence, but for businesses. So certainly outlook has improved, but it remains to be seen how clearly that will translate into actual activity.
This is what the Federal Reserve has been warning about for a long time -- we will still see consumer spending growth, but it will be more moderate than before, ... It's a retrenchment of consumer spending growth from blistering levels.
The 'new economy' was a new beast to some extent, and the Fed was too lenient in terms of letting consumer exuberance get ahead of itself. They should have been moderating growth in 1997 and '98.
The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.
The consumer is the last support here, and it's not getting any help. The savings rate plus the confidence plunge add up to enough reasons for the Fed to give consumers a psychological boost.
The consumer is finally winding down. We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
The consumer is finally winding down, ... We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
For the past year and a half, the consumer has defied a recession and Sept. 11 and kept spending at a healthy pace.
The economy's performance since Sept. 11 has been extremely resilient and based on unshakeable consumer confidence.