You have to feel confident the next 2 cents in the Australian dollar is down and not up. The market is beginning to contemplate the weakness of the domestic economy in the next 12 months.
Traders are coming in every morning with a bias to sell dollars. The market expects that irrespective of the data, the Fed is going to pause after its next meeting.
The dollar is largely consolidating after being pummeled the last day and a half and as the market continues to digest the FOMC statement.
The market isn't as confident about what the ECB is going to do, but they're more confident about what the Fed will do. The long euro strategy is built on faith, while the long dollar strategy is built on actual economic fundamentals.
The market is getting all lathered up over the prospects of the Bank of Japan rate tightening. This is without a doubt yen positive.