Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
The U.K. tried to cool off the housing market and slow their economy a bit, and they're caught in a situation where the economy is slowing but inflation isn't mostly because of oil prices, ... It's a bit of a dilemma, and that's reflected in their split vote.
All housing indicators point to a slowdown that is in full swing: falling home sales, rising inventories, and now falling starts and permits.
A strong economy and post-hurricane reconstruction boosted growth in November and could keep housing strong through early 2006.
A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here.