Chip stocks are testing trough valuations but if we have a seasonal pickup the downside is somewhat limited. But if you don't get that seasonal pickup, then chip prices drop and inventory gets dumped in the channel. That's when havoc ensues.
When sequential growth starts slowing down, that's when savvy investors will have to think about getting out of the chip sector,
If nobody's buying PCs then nobody is buying chips and nobody is buying equipment, ... Having a healthier demand environment gives chip makers more confidence to migrate to leading edge equipment.
Investors have been looking for excuses to say the chip cycle is over, ... But I'd guess that things don't plateau until mid 2005.