The markets would like to see some statement that the G7 are quite happy with the dollar-yen rate and if it stays at 120 yen they will be delirious.
In the second half they will probably be a bit below the average, but not substantially.
While their analysis is seen as proper, it is also somewhat out of date. If it was up to date it would be taken more seriously.
The increased production being touted by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is not going to be enough to dent the price,
In reality the economic news is still pretty ropey. On the yen, I am bearish.
People still see the likelihood of a rate cut this year and certainly not an increase in rates. Sterling is showing some weakness.
The performance was stronger than the headline numbers suggest. It suggests that manufacturing is accelerating.
Oil damps growth everywhere but the high oil price may well be hurting Asia and Japan a lot more. Oil prices won't be positive for the yen.
People have been a bit long on Norway and it looks like they have sold on the news.
People have reacted to the idea that the Fed may not do anymore after the next move -- its possible they may be right but to justify further weakness we may need to see more evidence of the U.S. economy weakening and I don't think that will be in the employment report.
