Alan Clarkewas an English television and film director, producer and writer... (wikipedia)
Mortgage approvals highlight a significant probability that we will see double-digit house price inflation this year. The MPC would do well to learn from last year's mistakes and react sooner rather than later.
Growth has come back and there's still some further improvement left in the pipeline. I think the sentiment on the rate-setting committee is also evolving. With the data continuing to improve we could see a 9-0 vote fairly soon.
Overall, this reinforces signs that we have seen the worst news on UK activity.
Tourism is a barometer of normalcy, and tourism is doing exceptionally well. Of course, we are starting from a low base, but we are a rising star in Europe.
The decent numbers we have seen will persist because mortgage approvals have rebounded so strongly and they are almost at the peak we saw in 2004.
We believe that with inflation rising rapidly, and concerns among the hawks that it will be harder to bring under control ... the door has been closed to further cuts.
This was another body blow for those still clinging on to the hope of lower interest rates.
With growth back to trend, housing market indicators trending higher and consumer spending substantially improved from the mid-2005 weak spot we continue to believe the next move in rates is up not down.
As the majority of the fraud was committed in prior periods, there was no impact on the company's recent interim result, or future results.
As the data continue to firm and upside risks to inflation build, we believe the MPC will adjust interest rates higher in the New Year,
The worst news on UK inflation is yet to come. The probability of a further rate cut is clearly reducing.
The rise in equity withdrawal is consistent with the rebound in house price inflation. It shows spending growth is increasingly dependent on equity extraction on top of take home pay.
Speculation that we will see deep interest rates is overdone. In the context of the widely anticipated rate cut in August, it is not surprising that the Halifax figures rose. Mortgage approvals suggest we should soon get better news on house-price inflation.
This certainly lends support to the (Bank of England) hawks that suggest the official retail sales data may not be a fair representation of broader consumer demand in the first quarter of the year.
It's a healthy increase. It shows the retail sector is not on the brink of falling off a cliff. I still firmly believe the next move in interest rates is more likely to be up than down.
Not even the most dovish of forecasters expects interest rates to be cut at Thursday's meeting.
Services performance was encouraging especially given the glimmers of hope on the domestic demand side.
For now, the 8-1 vote will provide ammunition to the doves that expect the next move to be a cut.
The key message is housing market activity has improved significantly into the second half of this year and confirms the downside risks to growth from the housing market are vanishing.
The coming three months of data will be dominated by energy prices given utility bill hikes in excess of 20 percent.
