Antoine Halff is co-founder and chief analyst at environmental intelligence company Kayrros and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University.[1][2] (wikipedia)
Overall, I think it sent the right message. But at the end of the day, the physical impact of the IEA release was much less than you would have expected. A lot of the market adjustment came from other sources than IEA countries.
There is tremendous political risk to supplies, including from OPEC producers, such as Iran or Venezuela, who have trouble meeting their production quotas, or even Nigeria. They can't address these concerns openly, but I am sure they are on everybody's mind.
If we have colder-than-normal weather, we'll see a bit of a shock to the economy, ... I plan to put a sweater on at home.
There is no short term supply pressure in the market.
While surging high imports likely allowed total U.S. gasoline stockpiles to start rebuilding in the week ended April 28, it may take time for depleted East Coast stocks to reach desired levels ahead of the peak summer driving months.
Heightened geopolitical risk profoundly changes the meaning of fundamentals.
If it's not rhetoric it's an effort to recapture the share of the oil cut that they gave away to deep conversion refiners,
If it is rhetoric, it is to balance the perception that that they are responsible for the high prices.
The government is trying to collect overdue taxes from oil companies to recover some lost taxes. And there is still some confusion about the government being in crisis.
In the short term, the main market problem at the refining level is the shortage of product, not inputs. It's mostly a problem of product (gasoline), not crude oil.